The amount of carbon removed annually by humans could rise by 0.5 gigatonnes by 2030 and by 1.9 gigatonnes by 2050 if national targets were fully implemented
New research indicates that the current global carbon removal plans of nations will not be sufficient to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as stipulated by the Paris Agreement.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most significant greenhouse gas, and the researchers noted that climate policy regarding its removal from the atmosphere "needs more ambition."
They discovered, however, that the current carbon removal plans might be closer to achieving net-zero emissions if the world's energy demand could "significantly" decrease.
The co-author of the study that was published in the journal Nature Climate Change, Naomi Vaughan of the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, stated that "carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods have a small but vital role to play in achieving net zero (target) and limiting the impacts of climate change."
"To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, our analysis demonstrates that countries need to be more aware of, ambitious about, and proactive about scaling up CDR methods in conjunction with significant reductions in emissions," Vaughan said.
The multinational team, under the direction of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Germany, examined annual reports from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) measuring the emissions gap—that is, the difference between what nations commit to committing to and what is required to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius—since 2010.
The amount of carbon removed annually by humans could rise by 0.5 gigatonnes (a gigatonne is a billion tonnes) by 2030 and by 1.9 gigatonnes by 2050 if national targets were fully implemented, according to the researchers.
The latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows a 5.1 gigatonne increase in the amount of carbon that needs to be removed in a "focus scenario," which is in contrast to this, the researchers said.
The "focus scenario" calls for drastically reducing CO2 emissions in order to reach net-zero goals by 2050 or later. This would allow temperature targets to be met, including the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree Celsius global warming cap or at least 2 degrees Celsius.
According to the researchers, this means that there will be an emissions gap of at least 3.2 gigatonnes of CO2 by the year 2050.
Additionally, they evaluated a different "focus scenario" that calls for a large drop in the world's energy consumption. The IPCC also states that politically-initiated behavioural changes are the main driver of the decreased demand, which forms the basis of a climate protection strategy.
The researchers discovered that, in 2050, this scenario might result in a relatively small increase in carbon removed, 2.5 gigatonnes.
With a 0.4 gigatonne gap in 2050, the authors concluded that, under this scenario, full implementation of each country's current carbon removal plans would be nearly adequate.
"The most ambitious proposals for CO2 removal (CDR) are close to levels in a low-energy demand scenario with the most-limited CDR scaling and aggressive near-term emissions reductions," the authors wrote.
The group agreed that challenges related to sustainability, like rising land demand, prevent carbon removals from being scaled up as much.
They added, however, that there is still much space for creating just and long-lasting land management regulations.