An IIT and University of Ausburg study warns that a series of extreme weather events are likely to visit India in the future that could imperil the lives and livelihoods of millions of people across the Indo-Gangetic plains.
The Indian subcontinent is likely to experience an increasing number of extreme weather events in the future, turning the densely populated plain around the Indus and Ganges rivers into a climate change hotspot with severe consequences for several hundred million people. This is the conclusion of a study conducted by researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology and the University of Augsburg and published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology.
The study focused on compound extreme events, which are situations involving multiple extreme weather conditions occurring simultaneously or in quick succession. For instance, a heatwave occurring during a drought or heavy rainfall following a prolonged period of high temperatures. Experts warn that such events can result in catastrophic consequences.
The researchers used a sophisticated statistical method originally developed by financial mathematicians to calculate the probability of certain developments occurring together. The so-called copula method is used on the stock exchange to better predict coupled oil and gas prices. This enabled them to estimate how much more likely such compound events will be in the coming decades.
The researchers analysed four possible development scenarios. The most favourable was based on the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions will be significantly reduced in future. In the least favourable scenario, on the other hand, it was assumed that there would be increased exploitation of fossil fuels. Each scenario was, therefore, based on assumptions about future carbon dioxide emissions. However, the scenarios don't just stop there: they also describe how population numbers, the distribution of resources, technological trends, and lifestyles will develop in the future. The scenarios are, therefore, potential, internally consistent blueprints for the world of tomorrow.
The scenarios used in the study contain assumptions regarding the population growth in the future. These assumptions are utilised to calculate the frequency of combined weather phenomena in each scenario and to determine the number of people who will be affected. The results of this analysis are presented in geographical maps that highlight the "hotspots" of climate change, which refer to regions where a large number of people are likely to be severely affected by climate change. The study shows that in each scenario, the lowlands around the Indus and Ganges rivers in the Indian subcontinent are likely to be severely affected.
The Indo-Gangetic Plain is one and a half times the size of Spain and is already one of the most densely populated areas in the world. In future, the population is expected to continue to climb. At the same time, the lowlands are very fertile, with rice and wheat being the main crops. As a result of global warming, there is an increased risk that parts of these crops will be destroyed due to heat, drought, and heavy rainfall..
Even in the most favourable scenario, people in the Indo-Gangetic Plain will be severely affected by climate change. It is, therefore, important to prepare in advance by investing in seeds that are better adapted to heat and drought, building dams that minimise the risk of flooding, and storing rainfall when it is plentiful in order to use it later for irrigation in times of drought. Through a range of such measures, India can better prepare itself to withstand impending changes.