Beyond COP 28: The climate conference raised the question of the dilemma of phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuels by 2050 and beyond
Is fossil fuel evil? In the complex web of our modern world, the role of fossil fuels has been both a boon and a bane. Are they truly evil, or have we simply become victims of our own success and reliance on them?
It is undeniable that fossil fuels have been instrumental in shaping the world as we know it. Everything we have today, from the Industrial Revolution to the present day, all our progress in science, technology, and socio-economics relies on fossil fuels.
These energy sources were once considered blessings or ‘culture of life,’ providing the power to drive innovation, economic growth, and improved quality of life. However, this reliance on fossil fuels has come at a steep cost.
In some respects, the very ‘culture of life’ we sought to cultivate has given rise to a monster. Overuse has led to environmental degradation, air pollution, and the looming spectre of climate change by emitting almost 75 percent of the greenhouse gases.
They were such profound blessings that we, unfortunately, overexploited them, turning them into monsters! Now, let’s take a moment and imagine how the world will be in 2050! When we would have successfully implemented all the promises made at various COPs to date.
No coal, and usage of oil and gas will be reduced to almost half, and all the countries will primarily use hydroelectricity or renewable energy resources, e.g., solar, wind, geothermal, etc.
Total annual emissions will be reduced to almost 50 percent of the current day. Urban spaces will be sustainable, and with the required greenery, forests will return to what they were just a century ago. Nature-based agriculture will produce sufficient food for the estimated 9.8 billion people worldwide! These are a few positives to be mentioned.
On the other hand, we will have billions of dollars of obsolete infrastructure developed to generate power from those fossil fuels. Vast stockpiles of then-defunct millions of cars, buses, massive transport vehicles, railway engines, etc., worth billions of dollars. Countries relying on income from fossil fuel sales will face a challenging future, possessing limited technologies and alternatives for rebuilding their economies beyond fossil fuels.
Fossil fuel currently employs 32 million people worldwide and is the primary driver of the economy of most countries. Over half of this massive pool of skilled workforce will be forced to migrate and face harsh uncertainties.
Additionally, there will be highly populated countries like India, China, etc., which will see substantial investments in the domain of renewable energy with low to very low space budgets, low employment creation as compared to the existing power plants, and high migration due to the complete or partial closure of all fossil fuel-based industries.
On top of that, a considerable part of the renewable energy plants will be ageing by then due to their low lifetimes, creating a comprehensive chunk of waste.
Till now, we have yet to have a proven technology to reuse, recycle, or properly dispose of them. This will not just be a problem of "landfill-space identification" but will also require significant investments to “fill the gap” in producing power from renewable resources, especially solar.
The impending shift away from fossil fuels is thus fraught with complex dilemmas and challenges. COP28 raises the question of the dilemma of phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuels by 2050 and beyond.
Without a doubt, phasing out fossil fuels is the ultimate solution; however, in light of the above argument, it has and will see massive resistance from countries utterly dependent on selling such fuels, including many developing nations.
This year's conference has seen unprecedented participation from religious leaders, leaders from industry, educators, and indigenous people from the most climate-vulnerable places. Pope delivered his message, pointing to choosing the ‘culture of life’ over the ‘culture of death.’ Protests were ignited worldwide by the COP28 precedent’s comment and overall ‘climate inaction.’ A group of 63 nations united on ‘global cooling pledge.’ And many more. But what is truly missing is a ‘Plan.’
A concrete plan to address all possible situations I mentioned above and beyond with appropriate means of techno-economic cooperation among all the countries worldwide. A plan will be systematically implemented throughout the world. This is to prevent the repetition of what we did to the environment and world economy by the rampant use of fossil fuels. Our choices today should not lead humanity down the same path it has taken for centuries.
(Dr. Rohan Dutta is Associate Professor and Director, Anant School for Climate Action, Anant National University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India.)