Global fossil fuel production must be reduced by 40% by 2030, or 6% annually, and the world has to use 70% renewable energy sources
In order to keep global warming to 1.5°C, a new analysis that imposes sustainability restrictions and minimises the requirement for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) reveals that new wind and solar installations must be made five times quicker by 2030 at a rate of 1.5 TW per year. By the end of this decade, the capacity of the world's wind and solar systems must rise to 2 TW. If the recent acceleration in capacity additions continues, this is feasible.
“Everyone from the EU to the COP Presidency is calling for a global renewables target, but this must be based on the safest route to net zero. We’ve shown that if the world accelerates new wind and solar fivefold to at least 1.5 TW a year by 2030 while cutting fossil use by 40%, we won’t have to rely on potentially unsustainable amounts of carbon dioxide removal in the future,” says Claire Fyson, Head of Policy at Climate Analytics.
In order to keep global warming below 1.5°C by 2030, the international community must achieve several key milestones, including rapidly increasing renewable energy sources this decade to 70% of the world's power mix, halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 by cutting emissions by 8% annually, and reducing global methane emissions by 34% during this crucial decade for climate action. The energy sector's methane emissions would need to decrease even more quickly, by 66%.
“Our method takes only the latest global pathways with the most up-to-date information on technologies and costs. We know wind and solar can scale quickly and undercut fossil fuels on price. Our analysis shows they can do much of the heavy lifting so urgently needed this decade, so let’s fast-track their rollout,” says Neil Grant, Energy and Climate Analyst at Climate Analytics.
The IPCC AR6 database contains certain paths that are not entirely compliant with the Paris Agreement. The study's methodology eliminates older evaluations and those that place an undue emphasis on risky assumptions in favour of the most recent 1.5-aligned routes that incorporate sustainability limitations. As a result, only 0.1% of the world's electricity would come from CCS by 2030, according to the study.